← HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
Fire Cinderbloom ComboTier 2
at HVN Regional Santa Clara by Final Cut TCG
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +4.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.1% | -20.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 35.5% | -10.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.2% | -8.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Cinderbloom Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashwick Cremator | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinderbloom Tender | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tricky Chimps | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |